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April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I
April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC
Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and
April 15, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
March retail sales with a 0.7% increase have exceeded expectations despite an expected negative contribution from autos, with sales up by 1.1% both ex autos and in the control group that contributes to GDP, and by 1.0% ex autos and gasoline. This suggest continued consumer momentum entering Q2.
April 5, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
Banxico's recent meeting minutes reveal a split among board members regarding monetary policy, with a 25bps rate cut to 11.0%. Despite progress in curbing inflation, differing views on policy direction persist. Inflation expectations deviate from targets, with potential risks in fiscal policy and wa
April 5, 2024 1:35 PM UTC
Canada’s 2.2k decline in March employment is weaker than expected though needs to be seen alongside strong gains of 40.7k in February and 37.7k in January. The 3-month average of 25k is above the 6-month average of 22k. However with the labor force rising unemployment is trending higher, March’s
April 15, 2024 1:22 PM UTC
We expect March Canadian CPI to move higher to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% in February and 2.9% in January, with the monthly data likely to look quite firm after two soft months. However we do expect some modest progress lower in two of the three BoC’s core rates.
May 3, 2024 5:00 PM UTC
After a 0.7% increase in March, we expect April retail sales to rise by only 0.3%. Ex autos we expect a 0.2% increase to follow a 1.1% rise in March, while ex autos and gasoline we expect sales to be unchanged after a 1.0% increase in March which was the strongest since October 2022.
May 3, 2024 2:24 PM UTC
April’s ISM services index of 49.4 from 51.4 has fallen below neutral for the first time since December 2022. That dip was explained by bad weather. There is no obvious erratic factor here to explain the weakness, but the details suggests that weakness may be overstated.
May 3, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 4.2% YoY in March owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We now foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.6% in 2024
May 3, 2024 1:18 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll is on the low side of consensus across the board, with a 175k increase (though the 167k private sector rise is only modestly below consensus), with a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings, a fall in the workweek and a rise in unemployment to 3.9% from 3.8%. The data should
May 3, 2024 10:45 AM UTC
While U.S. economic developments, plus Fed policy prospects, will be important in terms of EM currency developments, domestic politics and fundamentals will also be decisive. These can keep the South Africa Rand volatile in the remainder of 2024, given the risk of a coalition government and African
May 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation eased marginally to 3% yr/yr in April on the back of declining food prices. Despite the easing, food price remain the key inflationary factor. Additionally, imported inflation as the IDR comes under pressure could keep inflation elevated in the near term. Bank
May 3, 2024 9:04 AM UTC
USD to get support from US employment report
ISM services should be neutral, but some downside risks
JPY strength to continue long run, but some consolidation may be seen near term
NOK has upside scope despite recent weakness with Norges Bank likely to remain steady
May 3, 2024 8:46 AM UTC
Surprising few, the Norges Bank Board left the policy rate at 4.5% for a third successive meeting at its latest Board meeting. It also retained the thinking first aired at the December meeting, namely ‘policy to stay on hold for some time ahead’ rhetoric, this more formally evident in what wer