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April 24, 2024 12:51 PM UTC
March durable goods orders are in line with expectations with a 2.6% increase overall, 0.2% ex transport, keeping trend near flat, with non-defense capital ex aircraft seeing similarly modest 0.2% increases in both orders and shipments.
April 22, 2024 1:15 PM UTC
The Fed’s shift to higher for longer has spilled over to drag European government bond yields higher through April. This now looks overdone as a June ECB rate cut is not fully discounted and ECB officials/data clearly point towards a 25bps cut. UK money markets are more out of line, with a Jun
April 18, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
Bottom Line: A China coastguard vessel blocked two Philippines government vessels over the weekend in the Second Thomas shoal area near the Philippines, which has raised questions over whether the South China Sea will be another geopolitical flashpoint. We would say not in 2024, both given China
April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway. However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers
April 17, 2024 6:52 AM UTC
UK headline and core inflation have been on a clear downward trajectory in the last few months, the former having peaked above 10% in February last year and the latter at 7.1% In May. After a pause in the preceding three months, this downtrend seemingly resumed in the February CPI numbers and clearl
April 16, 2024 8:33 AM UTC
Q1 GDP upside surprise was driven mainly by public sector investment. With the government still to implement the Yuan 1trn of special sovereign bonds for infrastructure spending, public investment will likely remain a key driving force. However, the breakdown of the March data show that retail s
April 15, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
March retail sales with a 0.7% increase have exceeded expectations despite an expected negative contribution from autos, with sales up by 1.1% both ex autos and in the control group that contributes to GDP, and by 1.0% ex autos and gasoline. This suggest continued consumer momentum entering Q2.
April 10, 2024 12:55 PM UTC
March CPI has shown a third straight disappointing month at 0.4% overall and ex food and energy, and this suggests that with the economy’s strength persisting, inflation has not yet been defeated, despite the encouraging data seen through the second half of 2023. Still, the market surprise was not
April 9, 2024 12:27 PM UTC
We expect March CPI to rise by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, though before rounding we expect the headline at 0.31% to exceed the core rate at 0.27%, the latter a return to trend after two straight disappointing 0.4% gains seen in January and February.
April 8, 2024 6:03 PM UTC
Our Q1 GDP estimate now stands at 2.0% annualized, not much changed from the 2.4% estimate we made in February, though this would now be the slowest quarter since a decline in Q2 2022. The Atlanta Fed’s nowcast is a little stronger than our view at 2.5%, though when we made our 2.4% forecast in Fe
April 4, 2024 12:22 PM UTC
As has been the case for several times now, the ECB meeting verdict due next Thursday (Apr 11) will be notable not for what the Council does but rather what is said just as at the March meeting whose minutes were released today. A fifth successive stable policy decision is very much expected, albe
April 2, 2024 9:46 AM UTC
It is ever clearer how the labour market (and particularly labour costs) are the dominant theme for the ECB is assessing the policy backdrop and outlook. While HICP inflation continues to subside amid an economy backdrop which is flat at best, the labor market still looks apparently unmoved, with
March 29, 2024 1:07 PM UTC
February’s PCE price data comes as a relief, with a consensus 0.3% core rate up only 0.2615% before rounding, well below a core CPI that was rounded up to 0.4%, while the 0.3% headline (0.333% before rounding) is below consensus, after a strong CPI gain that was rounded down to 0.4%.
March 26, 2024 12:48 PM UTC
February durable goods orders are in line with expectations with a 1.4% increase overall, 0.5% ex transport, following declines of 6.9%b and 0.3% respectively in January. Underlying trend ex transport remains near flat though marginally positive. Ex defense saw a 2.2% ruse after a 7.9% January fall.
March 26, 2024 9:01 AM UTC
In terms of spot EM FX projections domestic drivers remain critical, with a desire to avoid appreciation versus the USD for some countries. Fed easing in H2 2024 should however help EMFX more broadly and allow some recovery in spot rates (e.g. Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), South African Rand (ZAR)