EUR/GBP-Commentary
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January 16, 2024 7:33 AM UTC
EUR/GBP is modestly higher after the UK labour market data, which could be seen as mixed but crucially saw a decline in the growth of average earnings in the official ONS data for the 3 months to November. While the more up to date (and possibly more accurate) HMRC data for December showed a small i
January 12, 2024 7:39 AM UTC
GBP is initially slightly firmer after November GDP came in at 0.3% - slightly above the 0.2% expected. However, the 3m/3m trend is still weak after October’s 0.3% decline, and while a flat quarter is likely, a flat December would only mean a flat quarter because of rounding. The trend appears to
December 21, 2023 8:50 AM UTC
GBP has stabilised against the EUR, but the tone remains mild negative with Wednesday’a much weaker than expected UK CPI data having prompted the money market to price in close to six 25bps rate cuts in 2024. Traders feel that GBP can drift out versus EUR, though some also note Thursday comments
December 20, 2023 7:17 AM UTC
GBP has fallen after the much lower than expected UK CPI figure, with the ONS indicating that it was driven by eight sub categories. The sharp decline in core CPI from 5.7% to 5.1%, will provide comfort in itself to the BOE but will also raise questions whether UK inflation is slowing more quickly
December 15, 2023 9:57 AM UTC
Another strong UK PMI in contrast to the weaker reading in the Eurozone. We don’t have a huge amount of trust in the composite PMIs as a growth indicator, not least because they exclude retail and construction, which are both weak and being significantly affected by tight monetary policy. But the
December 15, 2023 9:17 AM UTC
Weak PMIs from the Eurozone have knocked EUR/USD lower, undermining the credibility of yesterday’s attempt at hawkishness form Lagarde. While EUR yields remain slightly above the levels seen before the ECB, the market hasn’t really bought the view of an extended plateau to rates, and is still pr
December 15, 2023 7:59 AM UTC
A relatively quiet overnight session sees most of the majors return to Europe little changed from Thursday closing levels. The clearly hawkish tone from the ECB and the BoE has given European currencies a boost, and the bounce is likely to be sustained as long as risk appetite remains positive. The
December 14, 2023 12:14 PM UTC
The Bank of England have left rates unchanged, but the decision was only carried 6-3 once again, with the three hawks continuing to vote for a rate hike. This has pulled GBP higher in response, with EUR/GBP dropping around 20 pips, as UK 2 year yields have moved around 5 pips higher. This only parti
December 13, 2023 7:29 AM UTC
Much weaker than expected UK GDP in October has sent GBP lower, although the initial reaction has been quite modest. EUR/GBP has popped above 0.86, but we suspect there are more gains to come as the 0.3% decline in GDP is likely to impact expectations of Q4 GDP as a whole and convince at least one o
December 12, 2023 7:36 AM UTC
The UK labour market data is modestly on the weak side of expectations. Average earnings growth was below expectations both excluding and particularly including bonuses. The claimant count rose again, and the more up to date HMRC data showed a decline in employment and a further decline in pay growt